Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $2.1M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 100.0% | — |
| Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
Context
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice