Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price a 100.0% chance that Shehbaz Sharif signs a U.S.-Iran agreement by the cutoff. That makes it near-certain he will be among the signatories.
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Updated · Volume $1.9M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 100.0% | — |
| Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 2.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 2.3% | -0.5 |
| Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 2.0% | -0.2 |
| Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 1.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 1.7% | — |
| Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 1.7% | — |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 1.4% | — |
| Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 1.4% | — |
| Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 1.1% | — |
| Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.9% | — |
| Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.5% | — |
| Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
Markets price a near-certainty that Shehbaz Sharif signs, with other senior officials also seen as highly likely to affix their signatures; the remaining outcomes are long shots.
Context
The probability that Shehbaz Sharif signs has settled at 100.0% after trading between 2.1% and 95.5% over the period. For a “Yes” resolution, Shehbaz Sharif must sign, in an official capacity, a written agreement to which both the U.S. and Iran are parties. The market closes on Aug 1, 2026. Both physical and officially issued electronic signatures qualify. The agreement need not be signed by U.S. or Iranian representatives, provided both states are parties. The primary resolution source is official information from the relevant governments, though a consensus of credible reporting may also settle the market. The deadline, Aug 1, 2026, is the binding endpoint: no agreement by then means a “No” resolution.
FAQ
What qualifies as signing the agreement?
A physical signature or an officially issued electronic signature on a written agreement, by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.
Does the agreement have to be solely between the U.S. and Iran?
Both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must be parties, but representatives of those countries do not need to sign; the listed individual may sign on behalf of any party, including a third state or international organization.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the deadline of Aug 1, 2026, based on whether the signing occurred by that time.
What if no official information is available?
A consensus of credible reporting may be used as the resolution source.
Can multiple listed individuals sign the same agreement?
Yes, the market resolves independently for each individual; multiple signatures are possible and do not affect one another's resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice