Trump Endorsements: Latest Prediction Market Odds
Prediction markets price the chance of a Trump endorsement for Steve Hilton in California's governor race at 100.0%, making it near-certain. The market hinges on an announcement coming by the day before the November 2, 2026 election.
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
Updated · Volume $250.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump endorse Steve Hilton in CA-Gov for Nov 2 2026 ET? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump endorse Lindsey Graham for SC-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump endorse Susan Collins for ME-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump endorse Winsome Earle-Sears for VA-Gov by Nov 2 2025 ET? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome on Steve Hilton is near-certain, and the other named endorsement questions share similarly high probabilities, with only a few long-shot scenarios.
Context
The probability of an endorsement for Steve Hilton currently sits at 100.0%. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump announces he will vote for or endorses Hilton in the CA-Gov race. The cutoff is 11:59 PM ET on the day before the scheduled election—November 1, 2026. If no endorsement arrives by then, the market settles to No. Resolution relies on official information from Trump or his representatives, or on a consensus of credible reporting. The key date is the endorsement deadline: the day before the election. Any statement from Trump or his team before that moment could shift the odds. The market also watches for credible reports that might confirm or deny an endorsement, as both are accepted as resolution sources.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to Yes if Trump announces he will vote for or endorses the named candidate for the listed election. If he does not by the deadline, it resolves to No.
What is the endorsement deadline?
The deadline is 11:59 PM ET on the day before the scheduled election. For the CA-Gov race, that is November 1, 2026.
What counts as an official endorsement?
Official information from Trump or his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.
What if Trump makes a statement after the deadline?
Only endorsements announced before the deadline count; later ones do not affect the market.
Does the market consider who Trump says he will vote for?
Yes, the market includes both public voting intentions and formal endorsements.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice