WI-02 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
The Democratic Party is near-certain to win Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district in 2026, with prediction markets putting the probability at 97.3%.
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat?
Updated · Volume $102.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat? | 97.3% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the WI-02 House seat? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the WI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the WI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the WI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the WI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the WI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the WI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party is near-certain to win the seat, with alternative scenarios collectively priced as long shots.
Context
The market has been stable, with the Democratic Party's chances hovering around 97.3%. The market will resolve to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if unlisted, by the party with which they have most recently expressed an intent to caucus when the House elections are conclusively called. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting, or official FEC results if reporting is ambiguous. The primary date that could shift the market is the election itself: Nov 3, 2026. Until then, any news affecting the composition of the field, candidate withdrawals, or changes in district partisanship could adjust the figure, but the market's terms tie the outcome strictly to the final election result and the official reporting thereafter.
FAQ
How is the winning party determined?
By the ballot-listed affiliation of the winning candidate. If no party is listed, the candidate is assigned to the party they most recently indicated they would caucus with when the House elections are conclusively called.
When does the market resolve?
After the 2026 midterm elections, once a consensus of credible reporting declares a winner. In case of ambiguity, the market uses official results from the Federal Election Commission.
What happens if the election is delayed or disputed?
The market will wait for a conclusive call by credible reporting sources or the FEC. It does not resolve on unfinished counts or contested outcomes.
How are independent candidates handled?
If a candidate is not affiliated with a party on the ballot, they are assigned to the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus, as determined at the time the election is called.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice