WI-04 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Democratic Party victory in Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district at 96.4%, treating it as near-certain ahead of the November 2026 midterms.
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $36.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the WI-04 House seat? | 96.4% | +0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the WI-04 House seat? | 1.4% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the WI-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the WI-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the WI-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the WI-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the WI-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the WI-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party is the overwhelming favorite to hold the seat; every other outcome is a long shot.
Context
The probability of a Democratic win in WI-04 has been near-certain throughout the market’s life, with the price hugging 96.4%. The market settles according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 seat in the 2026 U.S. House elections, which take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or, if none is listed, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The result is taken from a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in the event of ambiguity. The market resolves based on the election outcome on Nov 3, 2026. No other scheduled events are specified in the market’s rules that would shift the probability before that date.
FAQ
How does this market determine which party wins?
It looks at the party affiliation of the winning candidate based on their ballot listing. If no party is listed, it uses their most recent expressed caucus intention.
When will the market be resolved?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026, once the WI-04 result is conclusively called by credible reporting sources.
What sources are used to confirm the winner?
The result is drawn from a consensus of credible media reports. If there is any ambiguity, the official results from the Federal Election Commission serve as the final authority.
What happens if the candidate’s party affiliation is disputed?
If the candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation, the market resolves based on the party with which they most recently said they would caucus, as determined at the time all House races are called.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice