WI-05 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability

The contract currently stands at 96.2%. In the last day it moved -0.1 pts. The probability has held steady, with any fluctuations remaining modest. The market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if none is listed, the market looks to the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission's official results serving as a backstop in case of ambiguity. The election on Nov 4, 2026 is the defining event. Until that date, the price may react to new information—candidate filings, campaign developments, or polling—that shifts the perceived likelihood of a Republican hold. The final resolution will hinge on the calls made by news organizations or, if needed, the FEC.