Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 92.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
WI-07 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give the Republican Party a 94.5% chance to hold the WI-07 House seat in the 2026 midterms, reflecting a view that the party is strongly favored.
94.5%+2.0 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the WI-07 House seat?
Updated · Volume $49.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the WI-07 House seat? | 94.5% | +2.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WI-07 House seat? | 4.5% | +0.1 |
| Will C win the WI-07 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the WI-07 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the WI-07 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the WI-07 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the WI-07 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the WI-07 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican candidate is the clear expectation, while the Democratic challenger faces an outside chance; all other outcomes are effectively zero.
Context
Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 93.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 95.5% to 94.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
The market's assessment of the Republican Party's chances currently stands at 94.5%. The market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or when no ballot listing exists, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, the official results from the Federal Election Commission are used. The approaching election date (Nov 4, 2026) is one formal condition that could influence the probability. Any news that affects the interpretation of party affiliation rules, along with the eventual consensus of credible reporting or official FEC data, may also shift the market's view.
FAQ
How does the market determine a candidate's party?
If a candidate's party is not listed on the ballot, the market will use the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time the 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
What sources are used to resolve the market?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting; if there is ambiguity, it will use the official results as reported by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the 2026 midterm elections on Nov 4, 2026, once a consensus of the winner's party is established.
What happens if the election is contested or delayed?
The market will wait for a consensus of credible reporting or official FEC results, and will not resolve until that is available.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice