Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 25.5% to 18.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
AfD Majority in Sachsen-Anhalt: Live Odds
Prediction markets price the chance of an AfD absolute majority in the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election at 18.5%. The market remains unlikely.
18.5%+0.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $450.2K
This binary contract centres on the Yes outcome; the No side encompasses all situations where the AfD does not attain an absolute majority.
Context
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 25.5% to 19.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 34.5% to 23.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 12.5% to 31.5% — a 19.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 29.5% to 12.5% — a 17.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 27.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 31.5% to 18.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 35.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 45.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 38.5% to 41.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
The probability currently sits at 18.5%, after trading in a range from 16.5% to 38.0%. Over the past day it has risen +0.5 pts. The contract pays out 'Yes' if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) secures an absolute majority of seats in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt following the state election. Should the vote not occur, or if the result remains unconfirmed by the resolution deadline of Sep 6, 2026, the market settles to 'No'. The determination is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with the official Landtag website as the final tiebreaker. Only the number of seats won by the AfD matters; coalitions and vote shares are ignored. The formal trigger is the official election result. News about the AfD's seat prospects can move the probability until then. The hard deadline of Sep 6, 2026 guarantees a resolution: if clarity is lacking by that date, the contract resolves to No.
FAQ
What constitutes an absolute majority in this market?
The AfD must win more than half of all seats in the Landtag.
What happens if the election results are delayed or unclear?
If no definitive result is known by the resolution deadline, the market resolves to No.
Which source determines the official result?
A consensus of credible reporting is used; if there is ambiguity, the official Landtag website serves as the final authority.
Do coalition agreements or vote percentages affect the settlement?
No. The market looks only at the number of seats the AfD captures on its own.
Is there a minimum number of seats required to trigger a Yes?
Yes, the AfD must win an absolute majority—more than half of all seats in the parliament.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice