Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 18.0% to 22.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Far-right AfD predicted to win big in crucial German state election — The Guardian
AfD Majority in Sachsen-Anhalt: Live Odds
Prediction markets have settled Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt at 0.1%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-AnhaltEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $1.4M
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 18.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Germany’s far right AfD eyes election breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt — Al Jazeera
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 18.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Germany’s far right AfD eyes election breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt — Al Jazeera
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 22.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 13.0% to 22.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 25.5% to 18.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 25.5% to 19.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 34.5% to 23.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 12.5% to 31.5% — a 19.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 29.5% to 12.5% — a 17.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice