Alberta Independence Vote: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give Alberta's independence an unlikely probability of 7.1%, as of 16 min ago. The market resolves only if a referendum on sovereignty passes before Jan 1, 2027.
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The 'No' outcome dominates, while 'Yes' is regarded as unlikely; other tail outcomes remain negligible.
Context
The market-implied probability has traded between 5.5% and 11.8% over the observed period, currently at 7.1%. The trajectory has been flat and uneventful. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Alberta holds a referendum on independence and it passes by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM. Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence qualifies. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Resolution is based on official information from the Alberta government or, if unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting. With the deadline Jan 1, 2027, the probability could shift if a referendum is formally announced, scheduled, or advances legislatively. The resolution source — official government announcements or credible reporting — means any concrete steps toward a vote would be reflected in the market.
FAQ
What would trigger a 'Yes' resolution?
A referendum on Alberta independence must be held and passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. The referendum must establish a desire for independence, set an independence framework, or directly establish independence.
What if no referendum occurs by the deadline?
The market resolves to 'No'.
How is the outcome verified?
The primary source is official information from the government of Alberta. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting is used.
Does a non-binding advisory vote count?
The description does not distinguish between binding and non-binding votes; any vote that meets the criteria of establishing desire, framework, or independence qualifies, subject to verification sources.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice