Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 16.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Israel genocide finding: Live odds and probability
Markets price the chance at 14.5% that an international court delivers a guilty finding against Israel or its officials for genocide by the end of 2027. The contract hinges on whether the ICC, ICJ, or a UN-established tribunal issues such a judgment.
14.5%+0.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $99.6K
Markets treat the “Yes” outcome as unlikely, while the “No” side remains the dominant scenario.
Context
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 15.0% to 21.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 15.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 9.5% to 20.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 16.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 16.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 18.0% to 21.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 19.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 17.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 21.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
The contract currently trades at 14.5%, having moved between 9.0% and 23.0% over the period. A “Yes” resolution requires that the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, or an ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing (established by the United Nations or any body thereof) issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. A first-instance judgment counts even if subject to appeal; preliminary or provisional findings do not qualify. The resolution source is official statements from the relevant court or a consensus of credible reporting. The formal trigger is the deadline of Jan 1, 2028. Until then, any qualifying verdict would settle the contract. The market therefore reacts to developments in ongoing international legal proceedings, but the only hard condition is a final, appealable judgment or conviction by the cutoff.
FAQ
What qualifies as an international court for this market?
The International Criminal Court (ICC), the International Court of Justice (ICJ), or any ad hoc tribunal established by the United Nations (or any UN body) with recognized legal standing.
Does a preliminary ruling count?
No. Only a judgment or conviction on the merits—a final determination at first instance—qualifies, even if it remains subject to appeal. Provisional or interim findings are expressly excluded.
What is the resolution source?
Official statements from the ICC, ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal. If those are unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting serves as the backup source.
Who can be found guilty?
Either the State of Israel itself, or any current or former Israeli official. A finding against either satisfies the contract.
When is the deadline?
The event must occur by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM Eastern Time. Any judgment issued after that moment is irrelevant to the resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice