Sep 16, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 6.2% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Ferocious fight among Brazil’s supreme court erupts on eve of presidential election — The Guardian
Brazil Election: Will Any Candidate Win Outright in the First Round?
Markets see an outright first-round win as unlikely, pricing it at 7.4%. Brazil's presidential election goes to a second round unless one candidate captures an absolute majority of valid votes in the first round.
7.4%+0.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $280.8K
This market is binary: the probability of a first-round win is the central figure, and all other paths resolve to No.
Context
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 9.7% — a 4.8-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 6.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 7.0% to 4.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Traders have placed the likelihood of a first-round knockout at 7.4%. Over the observed period, it has ranged from 3.9% to 14.0%. To win outright, a candidate must capture an absolute majority of valid votes. Failing that, a runoff is triggered, and the market settles to No. A long-stop deadline of Jul 1, 2027 applies: if no clear result is known by then, the market resolves No. The settlement relies on credible media consensus, with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) serving as the ultimate arbiter in cases of ambiguity. The formal conditions that could shift the market are the election day, the long-stop deadline of Jul 1, 2027, and any official statements from the TSE regarding vote-counting procedures.
FAQ
What does it take to win outright in the first round?
A candidate must secure an absolute majority of the valid votes. If no one does, the election proceeds to a runoff.
What happens if the first-round result is delayed past the long-stop deadline?
The market resolves to No if no consensus exists by that deadline, ensuring a definitive settlement.
How is the result determined for settlement purposes?
The market first looks to credible media consensus. If that is ambiguous, it falls back to the official results published by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
Is this market about the election winner or just the first round?
It strictly asks whether any candidate wins outright in the first round, avoiding a runoff.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice