Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
Markets assign a 10.5% chance that someone is charged over the Epstein disclosures, contingent on formal charges linked to files released after December 19, 2025.
10.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $140.2K
The Yes outcome is priced at 10.5%, an outside chance; the No outcome is correspondingly the clear favorite.
Context
The probability currently sits at 10.5%, having traded between 4.5% and 14.0% over the life of the market. This market resolves to Yes if, by Dec 31, 2026, any US federal or state jurisdiction (including DC and localities) formally charges or indicts an individual, and the charge is caused by information in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. A qualifying charge must be firmly linked to those newly released files through official charging documents, law enforcement statements, or a clear consensus of credible reporting. Charges driven by previously known information do not count. The resolution deadline is Dec 31, 2026. The market will move based on whether any announced charges can be credibly attributed to the December 2025 disclosures. No other events or speculative developments alter the resolution conditions.
FAQ
What counts as a qualifying charge?
A formal charge or indictment in any US federal or state jurisdiction (including the District of Columbia and localities) where official sources or consensus reporting attribute the cause to information in Epstein files released on or after December 19, 2025.
What if the charge is based on previously known information?
It does not qualify. The charge must be specifically linked to the newly released files, not to facts that were public before the release date.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after December 31, 2026, based on whether any qualifying event occurred by that deadline.
How is the cause of a charge determined?
Through official charging documents, information from law enforcement authorities, or a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice