Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 12.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Will Gavin Newsom Announce a 2028 Presidential Run? Market Odds
Markets price the chance that Gavin Newsom announces a 2028 presidential bid by the end of 2026 at 12.0%, reflecting unlikely odds. The bet settles on any official statement from Newsom or his representatives.
12.0%+0.5 pts 24h
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $93.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? | 12.0% | +0.5 |
| Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The 'Yes' scenario, priced at unlikely odds, is the only outcome highlighted; the alternative resolution is not a focus of market commentary.
Context
Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 11.5% to 21.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 26.5% to 15.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 11.0% to 26.5% — a 15.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 9.0% to 4.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Trajectory: As of 15 min ago, the probability stands at 12.0%. It has traded between 11.0% and 23.5% over the full horizon. Total volume amounts to $93.5K. Resolution & Rules: The market resolves to 'Yes' if Newsom officially announces a run for president in the 2028 election by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement suffices—no formal nomination paperwork is required. The primary resolution source is official statements by Newsom or his authorized representatives; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. What Would Move the Number: The resolution date of Jan 1, 2027 is the hard deadline. Until then, any official communication from Newsom’s camp—a speech, social-media post, or press release—could settle the market. In the absence of an announcement, the market resolves to 'No' once the deadline passes.
FAQ
What triggers a 'Yes' resolution?
An official announcement by Gavin Newsom that he is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election.
Can the market resolve before the deadline?
Yes. If Newsom makes an announcement before the end date, the market can resolve early based on that event.
What counts as an official announcement?
Statements via speech, social media, or other public channels from Newsom himself or his authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting can also serve as the resolution source.
Who is considered an authorized representative?
Official or legal representatives of Gavin Newsom are treated as valid sources for an announcement.
What happens if no announcement is made by the deadline?
The market resolves to 'No' if there is no official announcement by 11:59 PM ET on the resolution date.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice