Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 12.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets currently price the chance that José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero will be arrested by Jan 1, 2027 at 7.5% — unlikely.
7.5%-2.5 pts 24h
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $56.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026? | 7.5% | -2.5 |
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Arrest remains unlikely, while the alternative outcome—no arrest—is heavily favoured.
Context
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 11.5% to 22.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 33.0% to 14.0% — a 19.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 13.5% to 33.0% — a 19.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 48.0% to 22.0% — a 26.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 22.0% to 48.0% — a 26.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 22.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 15.0% to 21.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
The market has consistently reflected a low probability of arrest. Over its trading lifetime, the probability has ranged from 7.0% to 33.0%. This market resolves to “Yes” if José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested by Jan 1, 2027 (June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), following the strict definition of arrest provided in the market’s rules. Qualifying events include physical custody, formal booking, or surrender in response to a warrant. Arrest warrants alone, brief detention without formal arrest, or indictment without an arrest do not trigger a Yes resolution. If no qualifying arrest occurs by the deadline, the market resolves to “No”. The primary resolution source is official information from the arresting authority, supplemented by credible media reports if necessary. Movement in the market’s price will be driven by the approach of the resolution deadline, Jan 1, 2027, and any concrete legal or law enforcement actions consistent with the definition of an arrest. A formal arrest, surrender, or equivalent event before that date would cause the market to settle at Yes. In the absence of such events, the Yes probability is likely to stay low as time passes without the required conditions being met.
FAQ
What counts as an arrest for this market?
The market uses a detailed definition that includes being taken into physical custody by any law enforcement authority, voluntarily surrendering in response to a warrant, formal booking, house arrest, or similar measures. Brief detention without formal arrest or the mere issuance of a warrant does not qualify.
What happens if an arrest warrant is issued but not executed?
The market would not resolve to Yes in that scenario, because the rules explicitly exclude unexecuted arrest warrants from qualifying as an arrest.
How is the market resolved if there is conflicting information?
The primary source is official information from the government or law enforcement agency making the arrest. If that is ambiguous, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the outcome.
Does the market require a criminal conviction?
No, the market resolves solely on the fact of an arrest as defined in the rules. A conviction or subsequent legal outcome is not necessary.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice