Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 77.6% to 83.0% — a 5.4-point move over the past day.
Will Mamdani Freeze NYC Rents Before 2027?
Prediction markets price the chance of a New York City rent freeze before 2027 at 86.2%. The bet hinges on Zohran Mamdani winning the 2025 mayor’s race and enacting a zero-percent adjustment for both rent-stabilized lease terms by Jan 1, 2027.
86.2%-5.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $288.4K
The market prices a rent freeze as strongly favored, with a No resolution and other tail scenarios remaining long shots.
Context
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 78.1% to 82.5% — a 4.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 77.6% to 82.5% — a 4.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 78.3% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 82.3% to 76.1% — a 6.2-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.7% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 81.5% — a 4.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability fell from 88.8% to 78.8% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 75.8% to 89.3% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 81.1% to 74.1% — a 7.1-point move over the past day.
The market has traded in a range from 75.5% to 91.2% during its active span, with. The price has shifted with developments in the mayoral race and housing policy signals. For a Yes resolution, two conditions must both occur: Mamdani secures the mayoralty, and a general freeze on both one- and two-year rent-stabilized lease renewals takes effect citywide by the deadline. The freeze can be put in place by the Rent Guidelines Board, a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law. Limited carve-outs, such as hardship exemptions, do not disqualify the policy. If credible reports show Mamdani lost the election, the market settles to No immediately. The mayoral primary and general election results will be pivotal, with any signal that Mamdani is likely to win or lose sharply moving the probability. The final deadline is Jan 1, 2027; a policy not in effect by then means a No outcome. Official Rent Guidelines Board votes and any legislative moves in New York City or Albany that could impose or block a freeze are closely watched.
FAQ
What must happen for the market to resolve to Yes?
Zohran Mamdani must win the 2025 New York City mayoral election, and by the end of 2026, an official mechanism must have a citywide rent freeze in effect on both one- and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments.
What triggers an immediate No resolution?
Credible reporting that Mamdani has lost the election will cause the market to resolve to No right away.
Do any exemptions disqualify the freeze?
Limited exceptions like hardship waivers are allowed, but the freeze must generally apply to both lease terms for rent-stabilized apartments citywide.
Could the freeze come from an executive order?
Yes, it can be enacted through an executive order, local legislation, state law, or the Rent Guidelines Board itself, as long as it is in effect by the deadline.
When does the market resolve if Mamdani wins?
It resolves Yes if the qualifying freeze is in effect by December 31, 2026; it may settle earlier if both conditions are met before then.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice