Mamdani Millionaire Tax: Odds & Probability

The contract has traded between and, with the current level at 3.7%. The probability reflects the market’s assessment that both necessary conditions—an electoral victory for Mamdani and subsequent enactment—must align for a 'Yes'. To resolve 'Yes', Mamdani must win the New York City mayoral election, and a law or executive order must be enacted before the cutoff that imposes an additional tax on incomes exceeding the threshold set out in his proposal. The tax must be legally adopted—mere introduction or announcement is insufficient. Policies with limited exemptions still qualify. If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the election, or if no qualifying tax is enacted by the deadline, the market resolves to 'No' immediately. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. The market reacts to two main inputs: the trajectory of the mayoral race—including polling and campaign finance developments—and any legislative movement toward a new tax on high incomes. The contract’s clock runs to Jan 1, 2027, at which point it settles if the conditions are unmet.