Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 46.5% to 25.5% — a 21.0-point move over the past day.
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance that María Corina Machado will physically enter Venezuela by July 31 at 26.5%, a a substantial minority view scenario. The probability reflects the market’s collective view on a near-term visit.
26.5%+0.5 pts 24h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?
Updated · Volume $6.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | 26.5% | +0.5 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | 9.5% | -2.0 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31? | 0.3% | -0.6 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| ARCH Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 24? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The July 31 deadline is priced as highly unlikely, with all other time‑bound entry scenarios considered even more remote.
Context
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 24.0% to 47.0% — a 23.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 23.5% to 35.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 38.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 41.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 3, 2026
Probability fell from 43.5% to 36.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 43.5% to 39.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 51.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 46.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 3.5% to 9.1% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
The contract on a July 31 entry has traded in remote territory. The price has ranged from 23.5% to 49.0% during the life of the market. The market resolves to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that María Corina Machado set foot on Venezuelan land by July 31, 2026. Airspace or maritime entry is explicitly excluded. Final resolution is expected by Jan 1, 2027.
FAQ
How does the market define a “visit”?
A visit means María Corina Machado physically enters Venezuela’s terrestrial territory, as verified by a consensus of credible reporting. Flyovers or maritime passage do not count.
What happens if she enters after July 31?
This market focusses only on the July 31 deadline; it would resolve to “No” in that case. Broader questions about entry by January 2026 are separate.
When will the market settle?
If a qualifying entry occurs by July 31, settlement will follow promptly after confirmation. Otherwise the market will resolve at expiration. The final deadline is Jan 1, 2027.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice