María Corina Machado Enters Venezuela: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets assign a 18.0% chance that María Corina Machado will set foot in Venezuela by July 31, an outcome traders currently view as unlikely. Data as of 11 min ago.
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
Updated · Volume $6.3M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | 18.0% | +2.0 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9? | 0.0% | — |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? | 0.0% | — |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 24? | 0.0% | — |
The scenario that focuses on an entry by July 31 commands most attention; all other outcome groups are priced as remote tail risks.
Context
The contract has swung between 15.5% and 67.0% since it began trading, now standing at 18.0%. In the past 24 hours, it moved +2.0 pts,. Trading volume totalled $6.3M. A “Yes” settlement requires credible reports confirming Machado’s physical presence on Venezuelan soil before the market’s deadline. Simply entering the country’s airspace or coastal waters is not enough: only terrestrial entry counts. If no such event is confirmed by that time, the market closes at No. The primary source for resolution is a consensus of credible reporting. The contract’s expiry on Jan 31, 2026 is the final cutoff. Between now and then, any verified sighting that meets the resolution criteria—particularly a consensus among reliable news outlets—would likely change the odds sharply. Absent that, the market tracks the calendar inexorably toward its end-date.
FAQ
What qualifies as Machado “entering” Venezuela?
She must physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering airspace or maritime zones does not count.
How is a credible reporting consensus defined?
The market relies on a broad agreement among trustworthy news sources, as determined by the market’s resolution authority.
When does this market expire?
It expires on Jan 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. If no qualifying entry has occurred by then, the market resolves to No.
Can the market resolve early?
Yes, as soon as sufficient credible reports confirm she has entered Venezuela, the market can settle to Yes.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice