Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 13.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Mitch McConnell returns to US Senate after three-month absence — Al Jazeera
Will Mitch McConnell Resign? Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of an early McConnell exit at 10.5% as of 12 min ago, making it unlikely. The contract settles if he formally announces a resignation before his term ends.
10.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $1.7M
The 'Yes' outcome remains unlikely, with the market pricing a high probability that McConnell serves out his full term.
Context
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 24.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 14.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 15.5% to 23.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 17.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 22.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 19.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 43.5% to 37.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 45.5% to 36.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 41.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
The market views an early resignation as unlikely, with the probability at 10.5%. The contract has traded between 6.5% and 24.5% over the observed period,. The market resolves Yes if McConnell formally announces he will leave office before his term ends, or if he otherwise vacates his seat. His term concludes on Jan 4, 2027. A statement that merely reiterates his plan to retire at the term's conclusion does not trigger Yes. Resolution depends on official sources: statements from McConnell, his office, or the U.S. Senate. The odds are sensitive to any official word of an early departure. The market's deadline is Jan 4, 2027; events after that date are not considered. No other triggers, such as health crises or political pressure, directly resolve the contract unless they lead to a formal announcement.
FAQ
What exactly counts as a resignation?
The market defines it as a formal announcement by McConnell, his office, or the Senate that he will vacate his seat before his term ends, or an actual vacancy before that date.
Would retiring at the end of his term count?
No. The market requires an early departure; a routine retirement at the end of the term resolves No.
Who confirms the outcome?
Official statements from McConnell or Senate communications serve as the primary resolution sources. Media reports are not sufficient.
What if he only temporarily steps aside?
A temporary absence that does not involve a formal resignation or vacancy does not trigger a Yes.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice