Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 93.7% to 96.2% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Lula's Nomination by PT: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $199.7K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
Context
Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 97.4% to 93.7% — a 3.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 94.6% to 96.3% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 91.3% to 97.5% — a 6.2-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice