Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 3.1% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
Will Tim Walz Resign by 2026? Live Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give Tim Walz’s resignation as Minnesota Governor by December 31, 2026, an outside chance, pricing it at 2.9% as of 7 min ago. The market requires only an announcement, not the act itself.
2.9%-0.3 pts 24h
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $2.6M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? | 2.9% | -0.3 |
| Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Tim Walz resign by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The scenario of a resignation announcement by December 31, 2026, is the only outcome with any meaningful probability; all other possibilities are long shots.
Context
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 3.7% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
The market’s assessment has hovered in a long shot territory, with the probability now at 2.9%. The market resolves to “Yes” if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign by the listed date ET. An announcement alone suffices; actual departure does not matter. If it becomes impossible for him to resign—for instance, he is removed from office—the market resolves to “No” immediately. The primary resolution source is official information from the U.S. federal government or the state of Minnesota, though a consensus of credible reporting can also settle the question. The number could move as the deadline Jan 1, 2027 approaches or any news surfaces about a possible announcement. Because the resolution source is government statements and credible media reports, any signal from those channels would affect the price.
FAQ
What counts as an announcement for this market?
The market resolves to “Yes” if Tim Walz publicly states he has resigned or will resign, whether or not he actually leaves office. Official government information or widely accepted news reports serve as proof.
What happens if Walz leaves office without resigning?
If he is removed from office by other means and cannot resign, the market resolves to “No” immediately.
Does the resignation have to happen by the deadline, or just the announcement?
Only the announcement is required. The market resolves to “Yes” if Walz says he will resign by the date, even if the actual exit occurs later.
Who determines whether an announcement has been made?
The market relies on official U.S. federal or Minnesota government sources first; a consensus of credible reporting can also be used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice