Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 62.5% to 73.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Will Trump Be Impeached? Live Probability & Odds
The probability that the House impeaches President Trump before his term ends is 69.5%, making it the favored outcome. The market has updated 6 min ago.
69.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $103.4K
The market considers impeachment to be the favored outcome, while the remaining scenario is priced as less likely.
Context
The probability has ranged from 62.0% to 69.5%. Currently it sits at 69.5%. Total trading volume stands at $103.4K. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the US House of Representatives passes an article of impeachment by simple majority vote before Jan 20, 2029. A Senate trial, conviction, or removal from office is not required. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The only formal condition that settles the market is a House impeachment vote. The resolution deadline is Jan 20, 2029, and the resolution source is official US federal government information, with a consensus of credible reporting as a backup.
FAQ
What is needed for the market to resolve to 'Yes'?
The US House of Representatives must approve at least one article of impeachment against President Trump by simple majority vote before the market's deadline.
Does a Senate trial or conviction affect the outcome?
No. The market resolves solely based on the House vote. A Senate trial, conviction, or removal from office is not necessary for a 'Yes' resolution.
What is the deadline for an impeachment vote to count?
The vote must occur by Jan 20, 2029.
How is the vote verified?
The primary source is official information from the US federal government. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting is used.
What happens if no impeachment vote takes place by the deadline?
The market resolves to 'No'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice