Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 23.5% to 17.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 4.5% chance that Donald Trump will publicly endorse JD Vance for the 2028 presidential race by the end of 2026. The bet hinges on official word from Trump or his representatives.
4.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $81.6K
The market sees Trump's endorsement of Vance as a long shot, while the absence of an endorsement before 2027 accounts for most of the probability.
Context
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 16.0% to 23.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 26.5% to 14.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 24.0% to 12.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 9.5% to 24.0% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
The market-implied probability sits at 4.5%, having traded between 4.5% and 14.0% since the contract launched. The line has shown little volatility, hugging the lower bound for most of its life. The market resolves to Yes if, by Jan 1, 2027, Donald Trump publicly endorses JD Vance for the 2028 U.S. presidential election or the Republican primary, or announces he will vote for Vance. Any endorsement of another candidate triggers an immediate No. The resolution source is official information from Trump or his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting. A shift in the number would require a formal move from the Trump camp—either an explicit endorsement of Vance, or a competing endorsement that would instantly settle the market as No. The hard deadline is Jan 1, 2027; the bet is open-ended until then unless Trump acts.
FAQ
What counts as an endorsement?
A public statement by Donald Trump or his official representatives backing JD Vance for the 2028 presidential election or Republican primary, or an announcement that Trump will vote for Vance.
What happens if Trump endorses a different candidate?
The market resolves immediately to No.
When does the market resolve if Trump stays silent?
If no endorsement occurs by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.
Who verifies the outcome?
The resolution is based on official information from Trump or his team, or a consensus of credible news reports.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice