Trump Pardon of Ghislaine Maxwell: Market Odds
The probability that Donald Trump issues a pardon, commutation, or reprieve to Ghislaine Maxwell by December 31, 2026 is 5.5%, which markets describe as unlikely.
Updated · Volume $731.9K
The market indicates a low probability of a pardon; the dominant expectation is that Maxwell will not receive clemency from Trump.
Context
The implied probability has moved within a narrow range recently, fluctuating between 4.5% and 14.5%. Over the past day, it shifted by +1.0 pts; The current reading of 5.5% reflects an outlook that has been relatively stable. The market resolves to "Yes" if Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no such action occurs before the deadline, it settles as "No." Should Trump become unable to grant clemency—for example, by leaving office—the market may resolve to "No" earlier. The primary resolution source is official information from the US government, but the market can also rely on a consensus of credible reporting. The price can fluctuate with any credible report or official signal regarding Maxwell’s legal situation. The hard deadline is Dec 31, 2026, and any pardon must be announced within that window. Early resolution is possible if Trump’s authority to issue pardons is permanently removed. Changes in political conditions or high-profile statements could also shift the odds, but the resolution hinges strictly on the formal criteria set out in the contract.
FAQ
What counts as a pardon for this market?
The market considers any presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve granted by Donald Trump to Ghislaine Maxwell between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Will the market settle early if Trump leaves office?
Yes, if it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within the market’s timeframe, it may resolve to "No" immediately.
What source determines the outcome?
The primary source is official information from the US government. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
When does the market expire?
The market covers pardons issued through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying action occurs by then, it resolves to "No."
Does a pardon have to be accepted to count?
The market rules do not require acceptance; the issuance of a pardon, commutation, or reprieve by Trump is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice