Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Odds & probability
As of 2 min ago, prediction markets give a 4.5% chance that Donald Trump will pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by the end of 2026, making the scenario a long shot.
4.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $759.0K
The Yes outcome is considered a long shot; the No side holds the balance of probability.
Context
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 5.0% to 18.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Trump says he would consider pardon for former attorney Michael Cohen — The Guardian
The probability sits at 4.5%. It has ranged from 4.5% to 18.0% over the life of the market. The market settles to Yes if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Should it become impossible for Trump to grant federal clemency within that window, the market may resolve early to No. The primary resolution source is official US government information, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. The contract’s expiry at Dec 31, 2026 is the ultimate deadline; if Trump has not acted by then, the market settles to No. Earlier settlement could occur if government sources—or a consensus of credible reports—confirm that a pardon, commutation, or reprieve has been granted.
FAQ
What counts as a pardon for this market?
A presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve granted by Donald Trump to Ghislaine Maxwell. Any of these three forms of clemency satisfies the Yes condition.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves to Yes as soon as a qualifying act of clemency is confirmed. Otherwise it resolves to No at the end of the trading period, December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
What if Trump is no longer president before the end date?
If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon—for example, because he leaves office—the market may resolve early to No.
What determines the outcome—official records or news reports?
The primary source is official US government information, but a consensus of credible reporting can also be used to settle the market.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice