Trump Resignation Odds: December 2026 Prediction Market
Markets price the chance of Donald Trump resigning by the end of 2026 at 3.0%—a long shot—as of 4 min ago. The contract hinges on any announcement of resignation, not the actual departure.
Updated · Volume $540.9K
The market views resignation as a long shot, with the overwhelming probability on a 'No' resolution.
Context
The probability has moved little recently, holding near 3.0%. Over the past day, it has shifted -0.1 pts. The market resolves to 'Yes' if President Trump announces, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, that he has resigned or will resign. The announcement itself is settling; whether he follows through does not matter. If resignation becomes impossible—for example, through removal from office—the market resolves to 'No' immediately. Resolution relies on official US federal government information or a consensus of credible reporting. The defining event is any formal statement from Trump meeting the market's terms before the deadline. The end date is Jan 1, 2027. Changes in probability typically follow credible reports of internal White House discussions or official statements. The market does not require the resignation to actually occur, only that it is announced.
FAQ
What qualifies as a resignation announcement?
Any public statement by Donald Trump that he has resigned or will resign the presidency, as reported by official US government sources or credible news outlets, resolves the market to 'Yes'. The announcement must occur by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
Does Trump actually have to leave office for the market to resolve 'Yes'?
No. The market settles on the announcement alone. Whether he subsequently departs or not is irrelevant to the resolution.
What happens if Trump is removed from office before resigning?
If it becomes impossible for Trump to resign—such as through impeachment, removal via the 25th Amendment, or death—the market resolves to 'No' immediately, regardless of any prior statements.
What is the primary resolution source?
The market primarily uses official information from the US federal government. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting can determine the outcome.
When will this market be settled?
The market resolves after December 31, 2026, unless a qualifying announcement occurs earlier. If Trump remains in office past that date without announcing resignation, the market resolves to 'No'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice