ChanceIndex

2026 Wisconsin Governor Election: Tossup Market

Prediction markets price the Democrats' chances at 80.5%, leaving the contest strongly favored as the 2026 midterms near.

80.5%0.0 pts 24h

Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

Updated · Volume $513.6K

30%50%70%89%Aug 1Aug 8Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30
OutcomeProbability24h
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?80.5%0.0
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?19.5%0.0
Will Option D win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Option B win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Option E win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Option F win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Option I win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Option A win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Option H win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Other win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Option G win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Option J win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Option C win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?0.0%0.0

The Democrats and Republicans are finely balanced, while all other potential outcomes remain long shots.

Context

Aug 22, 2026

Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.

Aug 21, 2026

Probability rose from 77.5% to 82.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Aug 11, 2026

Probability fell from 60.0% to 59.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.

Aug 10, 2026

Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.

Jul 30, 2026

Probability fell from 60.0% to 56.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.

Jul 21, 2026

Probability fell from 62.5% to 56.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.

Jul 20, 2026

Probability fell from 62.5% to 59.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.

The line sits at 80.5%, having traded in a range from 37.0% to 82.5% over recent months. Over the past day, it moved by 0.0 pts percentage points. Resolution hinges on the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. The market will settle once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If the three sources never converge on a call, the outcome is determined by the state’s official certification. What could prompt a change in the odds? The most direct triggers are the formal calls from those three news organizations. The election date itself, currently set for Nov 3, 2026, is the immovable milestone; polling releases, candidate announcements, and campaign developments in Wisconsin will shape the market as it approaches.

FAQ

When will this market resolve?

Once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they never agree, resolution is based on the official certification.

Which sources decide the winner?

The market relies on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. All three must concur for an early resolution.

What about independent or third-party candidates?

They are not included in the current market. Additional outcomes for non-major-party nominees may be added at a later date.

How does the market handle candidates who switch parties or run as independents?

A candidate is considered to represent a party only if they are that party’s official nominee. Independents are not encompassed by the Democrat or Republican options regardless of past affiliation.

What happens if the election result is disputed or delayed?

If the three sources do not call the race, the market resolves according to Wisconsin’s final, certified election results.

Related events

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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