2026 World Cup Missed Penalties: Market Odds & Probabilities

The prediction market ‘World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties’ offers contracts on whether the total missed or saved penalty kicks during the 2026 FIFA World Cup will reach various thresholds. Only kicks in regular time, stoppage time, and extra time count; shootouts are excluded. A penalty is considered missed if it fails to produce a goal, regardless of whether it was saved or off-target. The market resolves to ‘Yes’ if the number equals or exceeds the threshold, and ‘No’ otherwise. Thresholds range from 5 to 50. The most striking price is the 100% probability for five or more missed penalties. Traders assign certainty to at least a handful of misses over the tournament. The next threshold, 10 or more, trades at just 1.5%, a sharp drop that suggests expectations fall well short of double digits. Beyond that, probabilities are minuscule. The contracts for 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 missed penalties all sit at 0.1% or 0.2%. These near-zero prices leave little room for interpretation: the market sees outcomes of 15 or more misses as extremely improbable. The total volume across all contracts amounts to roughly $1.44 million. The end date of July 20, 2026, covers the full tournament schedule. Should the World Cup be cancelled or postponed past August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to ‘No’, a rule that provides a backstop but does not appear to influence current pricing.