Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 62.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Watch FIFA World Cup: Argentina, Spain make preparations ahead of final — Al Jazeera
Spain 2026 World Cup: Stage of elimination odds
Prediction markets have settled Will Spain win the World Cup at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Spain win the World CupEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $2.0M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the World Cup? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Spain finish in some other position in the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? | 0.0% | — |
Context
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice