Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 93.8% to 96.8% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
WV-01 House Election Winner Probability & Analysis
The Republican candidate is near-certain to retain West Virginia's 1st congressional district, with markets implying a 96.1% probability. The seat will be decided in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.
96.1%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the WV-01 House seat?
Updated · Volume $61.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the WV-01 House seat? | 96.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WV-01 House seat? | 3.6% | -0.3 |
| Will C win the WV-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the WV-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the WV-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the WV-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the WV-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the WV-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is near-certain to win the seat; all other outcomes are long shots.
Context
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 93.8% to 96.4% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
The Republican candidate's chance currently stands at 96.1%. The market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate in West Virginia's 1st district after the 2026 U.S. House midterms on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by ballot designation or, if necessary, their most recent announced caucus intent. If a consensus of credible reporting declares a winner, that suffices; otherwise, the official result from the Federal Election Commission serves as the final authority. The election date—Nov 3, 2026—remains the central formal milestone that could reprice the contract. Until then, the probability reflects the market's reading of the race, with resolution ultimately reliant on FEC-certified results or widely accepted news reports.
FAQ
When will this market resolve?
Shortly after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, once a winner is confirmed by credible reporting or the Federal Election Commission.
How is the winner's party determined?
The party is based on the candidate's ballot-listed affiliation. If not listed, it is the party with which the candidate most recently stated an intent to caucus.
What if the election result is disputed or unclear?
The market first looks for a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity persists, it falls back to the official results published by the FEC.
Can independent or third-party candidates win?
Yes, but if a candidate does not affiliate with the Democratic or Republican parties on the ballot, their party is determined by their caucus intent, which might still classify them as Democratic or Republican for resolution purposes.
What is the resolution source?
The primary source is a consensus of credible news reports. If that is not clear, the market settles according to the Federal Election Commission's official tally.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice