Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
WV-02 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Republican hold in West Virginia’s 2nd congressional district at 96.5% for the 2026 midterm elections, with voting on Nov 3, 2026.
96.5%+0.1 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat?
Updated · Volume $100.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat? | 96.5% | +0.1 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WV-02 House seat? | 3.3% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the WV-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the WV-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the WV-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the WV-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the WV-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the WV-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is near-certain to retain the seat, while all remaining scenarios are considered long shots.
Context
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 94.3% to 96.3% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 94.9% to 96.5% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 96.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 95.9% to 94.0% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 95.9% to 94.0% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
The headline probability currently sits at 96.5%. Trading volume stands at $100.0K. The line remains in near-certain territory, reflecting a stable consensus. The contract settles to the party of the winning candidate in West Virginia’s 2nd district House race. A candidate’s party is the one listed on the ballot; if no party appears, it is the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus when the election is conclusively called. The determination relies on a consensus of credible reporting, defaulting to the Federal Election Commission’s official results in case of ambiguity. The election date itself—Nov 3, 2026—is the primary scheduled catalyst, as voting and subsequent calls will resolve the market. Beyond that, the number could react to the resolution mechanics: the consensus of reporting and the FEC’s final tally serve as the backstop.
FAQ
When will the market resolve?
Resolution follows the conclusion of the WV-02 House election. The general election is set for Nov 3, 2026, though final settlement may occur after results are certified and reported.
How is the winner’s party determined?
The party is taken from the candidate’s ballot designation. If a candidate ran without a party label, the market uses the party with which the candidate most recently said they would caucus at the time the election is called.
What if the outcome is disputed or unclear?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If that proves ambiguous, it reverts to the official results published by the U.S. Federal Election Commission.
Does the market consider independent or third-party candidates?
Yes, but any winning candidate without a Democratic or Republican ballot line is assigned a party based on their caucus intent. In the WV-02 race, such outcomes are seen as very unlikely.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice