Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 97.3% — a 3.1-point move over the past day.
WY-AL House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Republican Party as near-certain to win the WY-AL House seat, at 97.7%. The market resolves based on the 2026 midterm election, held on Nov 3, 2026.
97.7%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the WY-AL House seat?
Updated · Volume $44.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the WY-AL House seat? | 97.7% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WY-AL House seat? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the WY-AL House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the WY-AL House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the WY-AL House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the WY-AL House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the WY-AL House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the WY-AL House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is the clear expectation, while all other scenarios are long shots.
Context
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 94.3% to 97.5% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.
The probability has remained in a narrow range, currently at 97.7%. The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins Wyoming's at-large congressional district. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if unlisted, by the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission's official results serving as a tie-breaker if needed. The resolution event is the 2026 midterm election, which takes place on Nov 3, 2026. The probability reflects traders' expectations and may change as election day nears or as voting results and official tallies are released.
FAQ
How does the market determine the winning party?
The winner is the party of the candidate who wins the seat. Party affiliation is based on the ballot listing or, if not listed, the most recent caucus intent expressed by the candidate.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity remains, the official results from the Federal Election Commission are used.
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026, once a winner is declared and confirmed by reporting or official sources.
Can independent or third-party candidates win?
Yes, but a candidate without a clear Democratic or Republican affiliation will be assigned to one of those parties based on their caucus intent.
What sources are used for resolution?
Credible reporting outlets that achieve a consensus on the outcome; if needed, the Federal Election Commission's official tally.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice