Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 7.0% to 3.6% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Suez Canal Container Ships: 2k+ Transits in H1 2026 Odds
Markets price the likelihood of 2,000 or more container ship transits through the Suez Canal in the first half of 2026 at 0.0% — effectively ruled out. Before the Red Sea security crisis, the canal routinely handled around 2,900 container ships per half-year; a return to those levels remains a distant prospect.
0.0%
Updated · Volume $158.5K
The Yes outcome (2,000+ transits) is the only contract trading; markets treat a return to that level as extremely unlikely, with virtually all probability assigned to a No resolution.
Context
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 7.0% to 3.6% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 3.7% to 7.0% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 1.9% to 3.7% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 1.9% to 7.0% — a 5.1-point move over the past day.
As of 30 d ago, the market prices the chance of 2,000 or more container ship transits at 0.0%.. Volume has reached $158.5K. This market settles to Yes if the Suez Canal Authority reports 2,000 or more container ship transits in the first two quarters of 2026. The primary resolution source is the SCA’s quarterly container ship count, published in its “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports. Should that data be unavailable by September 1, 2026, the market will resolve using figures from third-party maritime data providers such as IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd’s List, based on SCA data or satellite tracking. The market reflects new information only as relevant data become available. Final resolution is expected on or around Sep 1, 2026. Quarterly SCA reports during H1 2026 will offer incremental updates on the transit count. A rapid recovery in canal traffic could lift this probability, while continued disruptions would keep it near zero.
FAQ
What counts as a container ship transit?
Any vessel classified as a “Container Ship” that passes through the Suez Canal, as recorded in the SCA’s quarterly navigation statistics.
How is the transit count verified?
The primary source is the Suez Canal Authority’s official reports. If those are unavailable by September 1, 2026, credible third-party sources like IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd’s List may be used.
What time period does the market cover?
The market considers all container ship transits between January 1 and June 30, 2026, inclusive.
Does the market resolve early if 2,000 transits are reached before the end of H1?
No. The market resolves only after the full half-year data is available, based on the final count for Q1 and Q2 2026 combined.
What if the SCA changes its reporting format?
If the SCA no longer publishes the specific breakdown, the market may use an alternative SCA source or third-party data as specified in the rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice