Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 66.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US Fed chair warns inflation progress insufficient, hints at rate hikes — Al Jazeera
Fed rate hike in 2026?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 65.5% chance that the Federal Reserve will lift the upper bound of the target federal funds rate in 2026, leaving the outlook the favored outcome.
65.5%+0.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $8.2M
The chance of a rate hike in 2026 is finely balanced, with no other distinct scenarios priced at a meaningful level.
Context
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 61.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 54.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 56.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 77.5% to 65.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Citadel bets on a Fed rate hike Wednesday as bitcoin analysts call a hold. Someone will be wrong. — CoinDesk
Show earlier updates
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 75.5% to 62.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Citadel bets on a Fed rate hike Wednesday as bitcoin analysts call a hold. Someone will be wrong. — CoinDesk
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 67.0% to 77.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 68.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 64.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 53.5% to 62.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
The market-implied probability of a hike now sits at 65.5%, having swung between 44.5% and 68.5% in the period tracked.. This market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point from the beginning of 2026 through the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year (Dec 9, 2026), the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased. Otherwise it settles as “No”. The market cannot resolve to “No” until after the December rate decision is published. The primary source for settlement is the Federal Reserve’s official website; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Formal parameters that define the outcome include the start of the observation window at the beginning of 2026, the final Fed meeting in December (Dec 9, 2026), and any official rate changes announced by the Fed in between. The resolution source is the Fed’s monetary policy page, supplemented by credible reporting.
FAQ
What does this market track?
It tracks whether the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point in 2026, from the year’s start through the December policy meeting.
How does the market resolve?
It resolves to “Yes” if a rate hike occurs during the eligibility window. If no hike takes place, it resolves to “No” after the December 2026 meeting.
When will the outcome be known?
The market may resolve earlier if a hike is announced, but if not, final resolution waits until after the Fed’s December 2026 rate decision.
What is the source of truth?
The primary source is the Federal Reserve’s official announcements, with a consensus of credible reporting as a fallback.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice