Fed September 2026 Meeting: 52.5% Chance of 25 bps Hike

The Federal Open Market Committee gathers on September 15–16, 2026, to decide whether to adjust the target range for the federal funds rate. This prediction market turns that decision into a set of tradeable outcomes. It tracks the change in the upper bound of the target range—the figure the Fed uses to signal its policy stance. If policymakers opt for a shift that does not land on an exact 25-basis-point increment, the move is rounded up to the nearest 25 bps for settlement. At present, the market prices a 52.5% probability that the committee will lift the rate by 25 basis points. That implies traders see a modest tightening as the most likely scenario. Yet the 43% chance assigned to no change is large enough to make the outcome far from certain. Together, those two outcomes account for more than 95% of the probability mass, leaving extreme moves—a 50 bps hike or cut—and even a quarter-point cut as remote possibilities. The market’s structure reveals a clear asymmetry. The combined probability of any rate decrease is only about 5.4%, with a 25 bps cut at 3.6% and a larger reduction at 1.8%. On the upside, the chance of a 50 bps or larger hike is below 1%. Traders are therefore betting that the Fed’s September decision will either be a guarded step higher or no step at all. Total market volume stands at roughly $2.5 million. The FOMC’s post-meeting statement, due shortly after the conclusion of the talks, serves as the resolution source; the market may settle as soon as that document is published. If, against precedent, no statement appears by the time of the subsequent scheduled meeting, the market resolves to “No change.”