Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 40.0% to 50.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Fed Decision in September? — Live Market Odds
Prediction markets price Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting at 53.5%.
53.5%+2.0 pts 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $104.8M
Across platforms
0.5 pt spreadWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- Polymarket53.5%
- Kalshi54.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 53.5% | +2.0 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 45.5% | -2.0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 52.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 47.5% to 58.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 49.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 51.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 58.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 46.5% to 58.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 69.5% to 54.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 30.5% to 50.5% — a 20.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 67.5% to 57.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $104.8M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting, is priced at 53.5%.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice