Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 94.7% to 98.2% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
3rd Largest Company end of July?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $416.5K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company N be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company R be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company O be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company T be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company C be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company G be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company L be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company P be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company Q be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company J be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company A be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company I be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will any other company be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company E be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company S be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company F be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company H be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company K be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company M be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Broadcom be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company D be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company B be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.9% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 96.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 87.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 81.0% to 79.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice