Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 99.7% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
AI Model FrontierMath Benchmark: Odds & Probability
Markets price a near-certain chance—99.7%—that a state-of-the-art AI model will reach the FrontierMath Benchmark's highest tier by Jan 1, 2027.
99.7%
Updated · Volume $134.2K
The 'Yes' outcome is the clear expectation, while the 'No' outcome is a long shot.
Context
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 96.2% to 91.8% — a 4.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 81.0% to 96.2% — a 15.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 90.0% to 79.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 83.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 90.0% to 79.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
The current probability sits at 99.7%. It has traded between 79.5% and 99.7% over the observed period. To settle 'Yes', a state-of-the-art AI model must achieve a score at or above the threshold defined by the outcome on the FrontierMath Exam before the deadline Jan 1, 2027. Otherwise, the market resolves 'No'. EpochAI serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The number can adjust as the deadline Jan 1, 2027 nears and when EpochAI or credible reports provide new information on model performance. Any sign that a model is approaching the required benchmark level would influence the probability.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves 'Yes' if a state-of-the-art AI model scores at or above the required threshold on the FrontierMath Exam by the resolution deadline. Otherwise, it resolves 'No'.
What is the resolution source?
The primary source is EpochAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also settle the market.
What is the FrontierMath Benchmark?
It is a benchmarking exam designed to test advanced mathematical reasoning in AI models, administered by EpochAI.
What is the deadline for a model to achieve the score?
The model must achieve the score before Jan 1, 2027.
Does the market specify which AI model?
The market considers any state-of-the-art model, as determined by credible consensus.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice