Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 96.8% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.
Will the Bank of Brazil cut the Selic rate in August 2026?
Prediction markets have settled Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meetingEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $245.3K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 88.5% to 96.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 86.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 81.5% to 74.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 81.5% to 78.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 81.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 77.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 83.0% to 78.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 83.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice