Bank of Brazil decision in August?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting at 79.5%.
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?
Updated · Volume $137.7K
Across platforms
1.5 pt spreadWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?
- Polymarket79.5%
- Kalshi78.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? | 79.5% | -1.0 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? | 12.5% | +0.1 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? | 1.3% | +0.1 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? | 0.4% | -0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 94.5% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $137.7K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting, is priced at 79.5%.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice