Bank of Brazil decision in September?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting at 90.7%.

90.7%-0.5 pts 24h

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?

Updated · Volume $125.7K

71%80%89%98%Aug 1Aug 8Aug 16Aug 23Aug 31

Across platforms

1.7 pt spread

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?

  • Polymarket90.7%
  • Kalshi89.0%

Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.

OutcomeProbability24h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?90.7%-0.5
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?8.5%+1.5
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?0.2%0.0
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?0.1%0.0
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?0.1%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $125.7K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting, is priced at 90.7%.

Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice

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