Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 97.1% — a 3.1-point move over the past day.
Bank of England September 2026 Rate Decision: Probability & Live Odds
The chance of no change at the Bank of England’s September 2026 MPC meeting stands at 96.1% — near-certain. The decision is scheduled for Sep 17, 2026.
96.1%-1.3 pts 24h
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $216.9K
Across platforms
0.9 pt spreadNo change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?
- Polymarket96.1%
- Kalshi97.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? | 96.1% | -1.3 |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting? | 3.3% | +0.5 |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting? | 0.6% | +0.3 |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
A no-change decision is the clear frontrunner, but a 25-basis-point increase still commands a substantial minority of market backing; the few other possible moves are all long shots.
Context
Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 92.5% to 96.8% — a 4.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 95.5% to 91.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 71.5% to 85.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75% as inflation fears mount — The Guardian
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 74.5% to 83.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Interest rates expected to be held again by Bank of England — BBC Business
Show earlier updates
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 82.0% to 73.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 73.0% to 82.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 63.0% to 76.5% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 59.0% to 65.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 69.5% to 59.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
The market currently assigns 96.1% to no change in the Bank Rate. It has traded between 86.5% and 97.4% over the life of the contract. The 24-hour change is -1.3 pts. The market resolves based on the basis-point change in the Bank Rate announced by the Monetary Policy Committee at its September 2026 meeting, relative to the level beforehand. The official release from the Bank of England on the decision day—scheduled for Sep 17, 2026—serves as the resolution source. If the rate is given as a range, the change in the upper bound is used. Any move smaller than 25 basis points is rounded up to 25 bps; moves larger than 25 bps are rounded to the nearest 25 bps, rounding away from zero when exactly halfway. A postponed meeting that still concludes before the next scheduled MPC gathering will resolve the market; cancellation or a delay beyond that point results in a “No Change” settlement. Emergency rate adjustments between meetings are ignored. The market’s probability will continue to adjust until the MPC’s announcement. The key date is Sep 17, 2026, when the decision is published. Until then, the price reflects traders’ collective assessment of the likelihood of each outcome, based exclusively on the eventual resolution criteria.
FAQ
What is this market predicting?
The market forecasts the change in the Bank Rate announced at the Bank of England’s September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, compared with the rate immediately before.
How does the market determine the exact rate change?
The resolution source is the official Bank of England statement from the meeting. If the rate is set as a range, the upper bound is used. Any move is then rounded according to the market rules: less than 25 bps rounds to 25 bps, and larger moves round to the nearest 25 bps.
What happens if the rate change is 37.5 basis points?
Under the rounding guidelines, a 37.5 bps change would be rounded to 50 bps, because the rule rounds away from zero in cases of equidistance.
What if the MPC meeting is moved to a different day?
If the meeting is postponed but still takes place before the next scheduled MPC meeting, the market resolves based on that later date. If it is cancelled or delayed beyond the next scheduled meeting, it resolves as ‘No Change’.
Where can I find the official decision?
The decision will be published on the Bank of England’s website, usually in the Monetary Policy Summary and minutes released at the time of the announcement.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice