Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 76.0% to 83.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75% despite rising inflation — The Guardian
Bank of England Rate Hike in 2026: Live Odds
Markets price the probability of a Bank of England rate hike by end-2026 at 85.5%.
85.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $56.5K
The market is binary, with the current price reflecting the probability of a hike; the complement belongs to the No case, which dominates all other outcomes.
Context
Sep 16, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 82.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Fed raises rates by 25 basis points in first hike since July 2023 — CoinDesk
Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 82.0% to 77.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 82.0% to 78.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 74.5% to 82.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 74.5% to 82.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 55.5% to 65.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 61.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 33.5% to 49.5% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 47.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
The market currently sits at 85.5%. The contract resolves to Yes if the Bank of England raises its Bank Rate at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no hike occurs, it waits until after that deadline to resolve to No. The official Bank of England website is the primary source, though credible reporting may also be used. The price responds to the arrival of new information. Any official announcement of a rate hike settles the market immediately. If no hike materialises, the contract remains open until Jan 1, 2027, keeping the probability sensitive to economic data and central bank signals that alter the perceived likelihood of a move before year-end.
FAQ
What event triggers a Yes resolution?
Any increase in the Bank of England's Bank Rate between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
When will the market resolve if no rate hike occurs?
It will not resolve to No until after the deadline of December 31, 2026.
What is the primary source for resolution?
The Bank of England's official website, with credible reporting as a secondary source.
Does the size of the rate hike matter?
No, any increase in the Bank Rate qualifies, regardless of magnitude.
Can the market resolve early?
Yes, if a rate hike is announced before the deadline, the market resolves to Yes immediately.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice