Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 12.0% to 90.0% — a 78.0-point move over the past day.
Bank of Israel August Decision: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meetingEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $139.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the Bank of Israel cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the Bank of Israel hike by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | — |
Context
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 47.0% to 87.0% — a 40.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability fell from 89.0% to 47.0% — a 42.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 84.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 91.5% to 80.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 81.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 75.0% to 81.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 63.5% to 76.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 75.0% to 63.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 66.5% to 77.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice