Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 84.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Bank of Israel August Decision: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance that the Bank of Israel leaves its policy rate unchanged in August at 85.5%, with the decision scheduled for release on Aug 31, 2026.
85.5%-3.5 pts 24h
Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $123.2K
Across platforms
4.5 pt spreadWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?
- Polymarket85.5%
- Kalshi90.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? | 85.5% | -3.5 |
| Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | 12.5% | +1.0 |
| Will the Bank of Israel cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the Bank of Israel hike by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The hold scenario is the favored outcome, with a 25bp cut attracting a minority probability; all other moves are remote.
Context
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 91.5% to 80.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 81.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 75.0% to 81.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 63.5% to 76.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 75.0% to 63.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 66.5% to 77.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 77.5% to 66.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 75.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
The probability of a hold has moved between 66.5% and 92.0% over recent weeks. It shifted by -3.5 pts in the past day. It now sits at 85.5%. The market resolves based on the statement from the Bank of Israel's Monetary Committee after its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026. The change in basis points to the upper bound of the policy rate relative to the level before the meeting determines the outcome. If the meeting is postponed but takes place before the next scheduled meeting, the outcome of that postponed meeting will be used. Should the meeting be cancelled or delayed beyond the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to 'No Change'. The resolution date is Aug 31, 2026, when the Bank of Israel is expected to publish its statement. Any official release from that meeting will trigger resolution once the relevant data is available. Emergency rate changes outside the scheduled meeting are not considered.
FAQ
What meeting does this market cover?
It covers the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee's scheduled August 2026 meeting, which decides the benchmark interest rate.
How is the rate change measured?
The market measures the change in basis points to the upper bound of the policy rate, compared with the level just before the meeting.
What happens if the meeting is rescheduled?
If the meeting is postponed but occurs before the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves on that outcome. If it is cancelled or delayed further, it resolves to 'No Change'.
What rounding convention applies?
Changes of less than 25 bps round to 25 bps. Larger changes round to the nearest 25 bps, away from zero when equidistant.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice