Bank of Japan Decision in July?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting at 98.5%.

98.5%+0.2 pts 24h

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Updated · Volume $202.9K

78%86%93%100%Jun 14Jun 22Jun 29Jul 7Jul 14

Across platforms

6.5 pt spread

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

  • Polymarket98.5%
  • Kalshi92.0%

Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.

OutcomeProbability24h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?98.5%+0.2
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?0.9%+0.4
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?0.8%+0.3
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?0.1%0.0
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?0.1%-0.4

The top 5 outcomes account for 100.4% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $202.9K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, is priced at 98.5%.

Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice