Bank of Japan Decision in July?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting at 98.5%.
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $202.9K
Across platforms
6.5 pt spreadNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- Polymarket98.5%
- Kalshi92.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 98.5% | +0.2 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.9% | +0.4 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.8% | +0.3 |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | -0.4 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.4% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $202.9K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, is priced at 98.5%.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice