Bank of Japan Decision in October?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting at 83.5%.

83.5%+1.0 pts 24h

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Updated · Volume $128.2K

44%62%80%98%Aug 22Aug 29Sep 5Sep 13Sep 20

Across platforms

0.5 pt spread

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

  • Polymarket83.5%
  • Kalshi84.0%

Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.

OutcomeProbability24h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?83.5%+1.0
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?16.0%0.0
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.9%-1.9
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.1%-0.1
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.1%-0.1

The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $128.2K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting, is priced at 83.5%.

Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice

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