Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 88.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Bank of Japan Decision in September?: Odds & Probability
Markets see a 88.0% probability that the Bank of Japan will hold its uncollateralized overnight call rate steady at the September 2026 meeting.
88.0%-0.5 pts 24h
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $373.0K
Across platforms
1.0 pt spreadWill the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
- Polymarket88.0%
- Kalshi87.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | 88.0% | -0.5 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | 11.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | 1.0% | -0.1 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The remaining scenarios—including a 25 bps increase and larger moves—are all long shots relative to the no-change outcome.
Context
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 73.5% to 83.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 78.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 67.5% to 79.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 67.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 58.5% to 62.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 42.5% to 58.5% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 41.5% to 61.0% — a 19.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 63.5% to 57.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 63.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
No change is strongly favored, with markets having priced this probability at elevated levels through the observation period, where it has ranged from 35.0% to 88.5%. This market resolves based on the change in the uncollateralized overnight call rate following the BoJ's September meeting. The upper bound is used if a range applies. Rounding rules handle non-standard increments: moves under 25 basis points round to 25 bps, larger moves round to the nearest 25 bps, away from zero when equidistant. If the meeting is postponed by less than a month, resolution follows that meeting; cancellation or longer postponement resolves to “No Change.”
The market will settle once the BoJ issues its statement, expected around Sep 18, 2026. Any official rate change announced at that meeting would affect the outcome; emergency adjustments between meetings are excluded.
FAQ
How does this market determine the September meeting outcome?
It tracks the change in the uncollateralized overnight call rate announced at the BoJ's September 2026 meeting, using the upper bound of any target range.
What if the meeting is postponed or cancelled?
A postponement within the same month leads to resolution on that rescheduled date. A cancellation or delay past the next scheduled meeting resolves to “No Change.”
How are rate changes rounded?
Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps are rounded to 25 bps. Larger changes are rounded to the nearest 25 bps, with equidistant cases rounded away from zero.
Do emergency rate decisions between meetings count?
No. Only changes from the September meeting itself are considered.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice