Bank of Japan Decision in September?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting at 89.5%.

89.5%+1.0 pts 24h

Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?

Updated · Volume $48.4K

23%48%73%98%Jun 18Jun 24Jul 1Jul 8Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?89.5%+1.0
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?7.5%0.0
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?1.0%+0.1
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?0.5%-0.1
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?0.5%+0.3

The top 5 outcomes account for 99.1% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $48.4K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting, is priced at 89.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice