Bank of Korea July Rate Decision: Market Odds
Prediction markets viewed a rate hike at the Bank of Korea’s July meeting as near-certain, with chances priced at 100.0%.
Updated · Volume $195.6K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting? | 2.1% | — |
| Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting? | 0.1% | — |
A rate hike was priced as near-certain by traders, while the other outcomes barely registered.
Context
The probability of a rate increase hardened over the trading period, By the last update 46 d ago, it sat at 100.0%, leaving little room for the other scenarios. and total volume reached $195.6K. The market settles based on the Bank of Korea’s policy statement for its July 16, 2026 meeting (Jul 16, 2026). According to the central bank’s official schedule, the meeting is set for that date, and the decision is normally released the same day. The resolution source is the Bank of Korea’s website. If the base rate is raised from its pre‑meeting level, the ‘increase’ contract wins. Should no decision be announced by the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to ‘No change’.
FAQ
How is the market resolved?
The market settles based on the change in the base rate announced after the July meeting. An increase relative to the prior rate triggers the ‘increase’ outcome.
What happens if there is no decision?
If the Bank of Korea does not release a rate decision by the next scheduled meeting, the contract resolves to ‘No change’.
When does resolution occur?
Resolution occurs once the Bank of Korea publishes its policy decision for the July 2026 meeting, scheduled for Jul 16, 2026.
Where is the official decision published?
The resolution source is the Bank of Korea’s official website, specifically the page for monetary policy decisions.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice