Bank of Mexico Decision in August?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting at 95.5%.

95.5%+2.0 pts 24h

No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?

Updated · Volume $41.1K

38%59%79%100%Jun 14Jun 22Jun 29Jul 7Jul 14

Across platforms

0.5 pt spread

No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?

  • Polymarket95.5%
  • Kalshi96.0%

Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.

OutcomeProbability24h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?95.5%+2.0
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?4.5%-0.5
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after August 2026 meeting?1.2%-1.9
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?0.5%+0.0
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after August 2026 meeting?0.5%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 102.3% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $41.1K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting, is priced at 95.5%.

Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice