Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 54.0% to 64.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Bank of Russia July Decision: Odds & Probability
Markets price a rate cut at 100.0%, making it the near-certain scenario.
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July MeetingEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $481.2K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting? | 0.0% | — |
The market priced a cut as near-certain; the remaining scenarios—no change or a hike—were all long shots.
Context
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 64.5% to 54.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 73.0% to 62.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 42.5% to 73.5% — a 31.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 26.0% to 51.5% — a 25.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 72.5% to 61.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 59.0% to 64.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Heading into the decision, traders pushed the probability of a cut to 100.0%. The market resolves according to the change in the key rate from the Bank of Russia’s July 24, 2026 meeting. Settlement occurs once the press release is issued. If no rate decision comes out by the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to ‘No change’.
FAQ
How does the market decide the winner?
It looks at the Bank of Russia’s official press release after the July 24, 2026 meeting. If the key rate is lowered, the ‘decrease’ contract wins. Otherwise, the ‘no change’ bracket takes it if no decision is published by the subsequent meeting.
What happens if the July meeting is cancelled?
The market falls back to its ‘no change’ rule—if no key rate decision appears by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, that outcome resolves as the winner.
Where does the settlement information come from?
The resolution source is the Bank of Russia’s official calendar and the meeting press release, listed at https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice