China Annual GDP Growth 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0% at 76.5%.
76.5%-1.5 pts 24h
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Updated · Volume $756.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | 76.5% | -1.5 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? | 16.8% | -0.3 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%? | 4.0% | +3.8 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? | 2.1% | +0.2 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 2.0% and 3.0%? | 1.5% | +1.4 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%? | 0.7% | -0.6 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 7.0% and 8.0%? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%? | 0.1% | — |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher? | 0.1% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.8% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 10 tracked outcomes and $756.8K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%, is priced at 76.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice