ECB Interest Rates: July 2026 Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meetingEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $559.3K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | — |
Context
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice