ECB Interest Rates: July 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting at 97.5%.
97.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $344.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? | 97.5% | +1.0 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? | 1.1% | -2.2 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | +0.1 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 98.8% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $344.1K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting, is priced at 97.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice