ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting at 57.5%.
57.5%+4.5 pts 24h
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $164.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | 57.5% | +4.5 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | 43.5% | -4.5 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | 0.2% | -0.1 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $164.2K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting, is priced at 57.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice