Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.4% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
ECB Rate Decision Sep 2026: Live Odds
Traders assign a 98.3% chance to a 25 bps rate increase at the ECB's September 2026 meeting. The odds have fluctuated between 82.0% and 98.4% over the period.
98.3%-0.1 pts 24h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $277.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | 98.3% | -0.1 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | 1.5% | +0.0 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.4% | +0.0 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The market considers a 25 bps increase the single most likely outcome, though it is only a coin flip; a no-change decision is a meaningful minority view, while all other rate-change scenarios are long shots.
Context
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 80.5% to 91.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 83.5% to 78.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 83.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 87.0% to 76.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 87.0% to 78.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 82.0% — a 22.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 77.0% — a 17.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 67.5% to 58.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Renewed Hormuz hostilities drive ECB rates rethink amid ‘extremely volatile’ outlook — CNBC Economy
The market-implied probability of a 25 bps hike now sits at 98.3%. It has traded in a range from 82.0% to 98.4%. The 24-hour change stands at -0.1 pts. This market settles based on the change in the ECB's deposit facility rate announced after the September 2026 policy meeting. According to the rules, if the rate is specified as a range, the change is measured on the upper bound. Rate changes that do not precisely match a listed outcome are subject to rounding: moves below 25 basis points are considered a 25 bps change, while larger changes are rounded to the nearest 25 bps increment, with ties broken away from zero. Postponement or cancellation of the meeting has defined effects: a meeting pushed forward before the next scheduled gathering resolves normally; if no decision is made by the start of the next meeting, the market resolves to 'No Change'. Emergency inter-meeting changes do not affect this market. The key date is the ECB's September 2026 meeting, scheduled for Sep 10, 2026. The resolution source is the official statement or release from that meeting. Any rescheduling or cancellation under the market's rules would alter how it resolves.
FAQ
What does this market measure?
It measures the probability that the ECB changes its deposit facility rate by a specific amount at the September 2026 meeting.
How does the market resolve?
It resolves based on the actual change in the upper bound of the deposit facility rate announced in the ECB's statement from that meeting.
What happens if the rate change does not exactly match one of the listed outcomes?
Market rules include rounding conventions: a change of less than 25 bps is rounded to 25 bps; larger changes are rounded to the nearest 25 bps, with ties broken away from zero.
What if the meeting is postponed or cancelled?
If postponed before the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves on the outcome of that rescheduled meeting. If cancelled or delayed beyond the next meeting, it resolves to 'No Change'.
Does an emergency rate change outside the meeting count?
No, only changes announced at the scheduled meeting (or its valid postponement) are considered.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice