ECB Interest Rates: September 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting at 65.0%.
65.0%+9.0 pts 24h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $69.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | 65.0% | +9.0 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | 31.0% | -13.5 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.8% | +0.3 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.7% | +0.1 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 97.5% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $69.6K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting, is priced at 65.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice