Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.4% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
ECB Rate Decision Sep 2026: Live Odds
Prediction markets have settled Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meetingEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $602.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting? | 0.1% | — |
Context
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 80.5% to 91.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 83.5% to 78.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 83.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 87.0% to 76.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 87.0% to 78.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 82.0% — a 22.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 77.0% — a 17.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 67.5% to 58.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Renewed Hormuz hostilities drive ECB rates rethink amid ‘extremely volatile’ outlook — CNBC Economy
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice