Fed Decision in December?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting at 76.5%.
76.5%-2.0 pts 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $3.8M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 76.5% | -2.0 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | 20.5% | +2.0 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 3.0% | -0.2 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 0.7% | -0.1 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 0.4% | -0.1 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $3.8M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting, is priced at 76.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice