Fed Decision in December?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting at 48.5%.
48.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Updated · Volume $434.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 48.5% | 0.0 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | 44.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 4.8% | -0.1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 3.1% | +0.6 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 1.9% | +1.1 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $434.5K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting, is priced at 48.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice